East County News Service

October 31, 2018 (San Diego) – Every vote counts in the 50thCongressional District, where an upset win by Democrats is looking increasingly possible depending on voter turnout.

Under felony indictment, Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter’s lead over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar has slipped to a slim three points, 48% to 45%, according to a new poll conducted by Survey USA for KGTV 10 News and the San Diego Union-Tribune newspaper.

Among voters who say they already turned in ballots, the margin shrinks to just 1 percent, 49% to 48%.

Over half the voters surveyed, 53%, said they believe Hunter broke the law and only 19% believe he didn’t; 57% find Hunter’s claim that his wife is responsible for diverting a quarter million dollars in campaign finance funds for personal use to be unbelievable.

A scant 26% of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of Hunter, while 37% have a favorable opinion of Campa-Najjar, a former Labor Department official whose campaign has focused on bringing good-paying jobs to the 50thCongressional District and encouraging voters to put “country over party.”  Hunter’s campaign has focused immigration, national security and negative ads criticized as racist and found by Washington Post fact-checkers to rate four Pinnochios for blatant falsehoods.

Hunter leads among evangelical voters, men, and military households and has his strongest support among those who believe President Donald Trump is doing a good job, the poll found.  Campa-Najjar leads among women, voters concerned about healthcare, those who disapprove of Trump and voters concerned about corruption.

Among Republicans, 11% say they are crossing over to vote Democratic, while 82% say they are voting Republican.  Among Democrats, 88% say they are voting for Campa-Najjar, with 9% voting Republican.  Independents may prove the swing votes in the election, and Campa-Najjar leads Hunter by 13 points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Moderate voters also favor Campa-Najjar by 13 points.  Among voters who cast ballots for Hunter in 2016, 81% say they are still voting for him despite the pending corruption charges.

Hunter has been stripped of his committees pending the outcome of his trial. If convicted he could serve time in prison and would likely be pressured to resign from Congress due to his inability to serve; a special election would then be held at taxpayer expense.



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